SurveyUSA (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/26-27 in parentheses):
Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 52 (50)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (48)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Right after Strategic Vision joined in the party of everyone calling the Washington governor’s race a 50-48 race, along comes SurveyUSA throwing a pretty big curveball, one that shows a lot of last-minute movement to Gregoire.
As with the previous SUSA poll, Gregoire has a sizable edge with early voters, and in this poll, 72% of likely voters have in fact voted… and Gregoire leads by 8 among early voters. Rossi is tied among those who plan to vote at the polls, but that’s no path to victory.
Oddly enough, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer just had a story about how early voting seems to favor Rossi, as the heaviest rates of submissions of mail-in ballots are in red counties. However, their analysis has no way of knowing what’s actually on the ballots (there’s no party registration or Voting Rights Act recordkeeping in Washington)… and this poll, assuming it’s correct, would suggest that the red counties are going more for Gregoire than they did last time. That’s especially because the state’s two biggest blue counties, King and Pierce, are the only counties left that still use polling locations.
SurveyUSA also polled some downballot issues:
Attorney General: McKenna (R-inc) 59, Ladenburg 36
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Dorn (NP) 45, Bergeson (NP-inc) 37
Commissioner of Public Lands: Sutherland (R-inc) 48, Goldmark (D) 42
Initiative 985 (some Tim Eyman-sponsored crap about traffic): Yes (bad) 33, No (good) 45
Initiative 1000 (physician-assisted suicide): Yes 55, No 40
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
58% have already voted and they break 58-40 Obama.
42% yet to vote break 56-38 McCain.
Once again the black vote sample looks to be republican inflated, only going 81-16 Obama.
Hispanics are breaking 53-44 Obama. This is huge considering Bush won the 2004 FL Hispanic vote.
Glad to see physician-assisted suicide will be legal in another state.
A few comments on that article.
It notes that absentee ballots have increased greatly in “red counties” since 2004. Of course they have! We switched to vote my mail only since the last election! (The 2 counties that haven’t switched completely are King and Pierece: home of Seattle/Bellevue and Tacoma.)
The article notes that 2 counties with the highest response rate (Jefferson–not tiny–and Pacific) were two actually won by Gregoire. Well, only 8 counties went for Gregoire, the other 30 went for Gregoire. So obviously the number of counties is almost always going to higher for Rossi than Gregoire. 30 is bigger than 8!
In fact, 3 more of the “high return rate” counties in the article, were also for Gregoire. So that’s 5 of the 8. Throw in King, which has polling stations, that’s 6 of 8.
Furthermore, the 8 counties with the LOWEST return rate went for Rossi.
I’m sorry, but this is just a stupid, poorly written or poorly researched article.
It’s a stretch to call Pierce County a “blue county” when it’s really considered the state’s swing county. Rossi won in 2004 but Gregoire has a fighting chance this year.
Also, disappointing to see Goldmark down by 6. Here’s hoping he closes strong with the undecideds. All the other results sound pretty accurate.
First of all, I hope Peter Goldmark pulls it off. He is a fabulous candidate and a welcome relief from Sutherland. Second, of course WA is going to lead the way on Death with Dignity, we are the most secular state in the union. More people here identify as Atheist than any other state.
Its the rain. It makes us hate God. 😛